Re:America has more new spaceships on the way
by martythemaniak on Monday June 01, 2020 @11:06PM
(#23386951)
It'll definitely fly once, but probably not more than that.
The first rocket, scheduled for an unmanned flight in late 2021, is ready-ish. The second flight is currently scheduled for 2023 and I would agree that one will never fly. With both Starship, and to a lesser extent New Glenn flying by then, it would be sheer lunacy to continue with it.
> With SpaceX projecting a first Falcon Heavy flight in 2015, even with some slippage it seems reasonable to suppose that Falcon Heavy will be at least as “operational” in 2018–19 as the SLS. Both craft should have made at least one flight, allowing mission planners to ground future efforts in reality rather than speculation.
My prediction is that the SLS will never fly. Development might not be cancelled for a long time, because it's a jobs programme, but it will never fly.
If Orion ever goes to the moon, i think it will start the journey on a SpaceX rocket. If Starship works out, then on that. If not, then on Falcon Heavy with extensive in-orbit assembly before the trip. Or perhaps even some four-booster Falcon Super Heavy, although probably not.
[1] https://thespacereview.com/article/2737/1