Re:Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavi...
by skeletor_999 on Thursday May 28, 2020 @11:46PM
(#23346080)
Another consideration is whether or not the Chinese data has been reliable at later dates. The Chinese government did eject foreign journalists in March
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51938035
There have been some doubts regarding the accuracy of later numbers:
https://fortune.com/2020/04/24/china-coronavirus-data-real-l...
"Using an estimated number of total infections, the Infection Fatality Ratio can be calculated. This represents the fraction of all infections (both diagnosed and undiagnosed) that result in death. Based on these available analyses, current IFR estimates range from 0.3% to 1%."
And then:
"Without population-based serologic studies, it is not yet possible to know what proportion of the population has been infected with COVID-19."
So even without the population-based antibody (that is what "serologic" means) data, and only using the Chinese data "as of 11 February" available to the WHO the estimate was quite good. The range depends of course also on the age structure of the population -- the countries with much more young people would have closer to the lower number, the others closer to the higher.
1) Edit: the parent post quoted the same segment later too