You forgot to account for domain knowledge. You can be better than me at python, but I know my area and customers. When I'm given a half complete spec I can make good choices for the most part and get done without getting clarification. I can guess what version 2.0 will need well enough that most of the time those features will drop in quickly while major refactoring is required to get them into the better programmers 2.0.

Of course there are tradeoffs. A programmer who is much better than me has advantages in quality (assuming you are much better, in my biased opinion I'm great)

Domain knowledge isn't always valued the same by those writing the checks, whereas 50% cheaper is far easier to quantify.

You're probably right about this, but I'm betting we'll see political parties in countries all over the world start putting up roadblocks to this sort of thing.

It's already happening to a degree. There a number of what you might call "reluctant Trump voters" where I work. The most frequent (and often only) argument you'll hear from them in favor Trump is around immigration and H1-B visas. You'll also notice that the Democrats in the U.S. who are surprisingly quit around Trumps efforts to reduce H1-B issuance.

I'd be willing to bet that unrestricted competition for a limited number of high-paying jobs in the developed world would fuel the Nationalist parties and movements that we've been seeing more of in the U.S. and Europe.

My opinion has been that it's good for US workers if foreigners immigrate and become citizens, because even if they make less than most Americans, they make more than they did in their prior country, which means they are improving the global market for labor, from the point of view of workers.

But having classes of people who live in the country but have special restricted rights and never become full citizens worries me.

I wish we could move away from the idea that citizenship is a reward for following the rules and instead consider that making people citizens is a benefit for (maybe even vital to preserving) society.