A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

Re:A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2... by taneq on Wednesday May 27, 2020 @03:12AM (#23320250)

Or they took more risks than you and it paid off. Or they just happened to be in the right place at the right time. Or...

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Re:A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2... by koheripbal on Wednesday May 27, 2020 @06:21AM (#23321342)

Over the course of your entire life, the statistical expected values of the "gambles" tend to net out.

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Re:A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2... by vharuck on Wednesday May 27, 2020 @11:28AM (#23324778)

That assumes independent events. But "failing" early (weak social network, poverty, lost a lot on the first big gamble) have a large effect on the size and risk of the next gamble.

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Re:A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2... by throwaway0a5e on Wednesday May 27, 2020 @08:02AM (#23321972)

And over the course of the population there are going to be a lot of outliers (both winners and losers).

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Re:A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2... by cxr on Wednesday May 27, 2020 @11:07AM (#23324481)

If You Say Something Is "Likely," How Likely Do People Think It Is?

https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-l...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17457000

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