London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline

Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by eveningcoffee on Sunday May 24, 2020 @10:44PM (#23297235)

There is something funny going on here.

Here is 14th May report https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/a... that is referenced below the table.

For some reason they chose to use total from the page 3, 19.155 total by age not 27.321, total by region from page 2. I presume that they do not know the details of about 8000 diseased, but it does not matter when it is the total number.

Again while number of >= 70 year old matches the table on the page 3 - 16559, so do age groups <10 and 10-19 but other numbers do not.

The table on the page 15 contains only 263 from the age group 50-69 but the table on the 14th May report contains 2303. The IFR for this age group would be then 0.32%. Not very big but not negligible either.

Group 20-49 contains only 23 people from the 20-29 but omits 62 people from the group 30-39 and 201 people from the group 40-49. The IFR for this age group would be then 0.03%.

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Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by myk9001 on Monday May 25, 2020 @05:34AM (#23299497)

Thanks for catching that.

I don't really understand why they are using numbers from one table and not the other.

I guess, it may be related to the dates they conducted the seroprevalence study, but it's only a wild guess.

I'll try to look through the documents more carefully later, maybe there's an explanation.

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