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Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by hn_throwaway_99 on Saturday May 23, 2020 @05:29PM (#23286649)
That is an excellent question, and essentially exactly the argument Sweden is making.

TBH, I have yet to hear a decent argument against this, given the following thoughts:

1. Development of a vaccine will take a minimum of 12 months, more like 18.

2. It is not feasible, either for democracy or our economy, to stay locked in/sheltered at home for this long.

3. Thus, the main concern should be to "flatten the curve": keep the infection rate low enough so that, even though people still get infected, hospital systems don't get overwhelmed. I think it's important to note that the only places yet that have had overwhelmed (or close to it) hospital systems had extreme density (Wuhan, NYC), often coupled with lots of mixing of young and old (Northern Italy).

4. A corollary to number 3 is that as long as hospital systems aren't overwhelmed, or close to it, that you shouldn't lock down further. The belief is that the majority of society becoming infected within 12/18 months is inevitable, so extreme lockdowns will do little beyond push deaths out a bit.

5. Do everything you can to protect the highly vulnerable (old, immuno-compromised) as they appear to be at exponential greater risk.

I mean, as the US starts to open up, it is quite clear the virus has not been contained, so for better or for worse the above is the approach we are taking as well.

Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by somewhereoutth on Saturday May 23, 2020 @06:33PM (#23287182)
The alternative, which much of Europe is following, is lock down until cases are at sufficiently low level that test, trace and isolate can work effectively. Community wide measures such as mandatory mask wearing help with this.

We are deeply embarrassed about Sweden.

Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by makomk on Saturday May 23, 2020 @06:48PM (#23287279)
The trouble is, there doesn't seem to be any reason to believe that test, trace and isolate can work effectively. The characteristics of Covid-19 - infection just from being in the same room as someone with no symptoms, low mortality, lots of asymptomatic cases and non-specific symptoms in most other cases - do not seem even remotely amenable to contact tracing-based approaches.

Supposedly, Singapore and South Korea were proof that this could work anyway, but it seems to have failed in both places - Singapore had to give up and lock down after cases exploded, whilst South Korea also had a whole bunch of spread that completely escaped contact tracing and nowhere near enough testing to pick it back up again, but somehow managed to reverse it through stricter social distancing measures well short of a full lockdown for reasons no-one has explained. I'd be very interested to see what serology studies have to say about South Korea's actual infection rate.

Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by somewhereoutth on Saturday May 23, 2020 @08:13PM (#23287871)
Apparently (I can't back this up with sources right now) infections usually happen with someone you spend a significant amount of time with - e.g. together in a restaurant vs crossing their path at the supermarket. With mandatory masks on public transport and elsewhere, this distinction is reinforced and contact tracing becomes easier.

It is hard to imagine SK's infection rate is anything other than very small, given their extremely low death rate (264 for a pop of ~50MM) - to insinuate otherwise is, well, questionable.

Sadly a different dimension has crept into what should be a reasoned public health emergency response. I'm not sure from where, or why, or indeed who - but we should be vigilant, the cost is terrible.

Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by cma on Saturday May 23, 2020 @06:15PM (#23287031)
Sweden is 6th worst in deaths per capita in the world among non-microstates, and still isn't very close to herd immunity.
Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by TheOtherHobbes on Saturday May 23, 2020 @07:14PM (#23287491)
Natural herd immunity is an utter fantasy. There has never been herd immunity for polio, measles, or even for chicken pox.

Herd immunity only happens when a critical mass of the population - >70% at a minimum - is given immunity by a vaccine.

This creates a population with a low enough R to guarantee that outbreaks die out, even if some people aren't vaccinated.

Even then it still doesn't guarantee personal immunity, because people in small clusters can still become infected. But instead of a national health emergency which threatens to overwhelm primary care, you get small localised individual/cluster outbreaks which are very much easier to handle.

Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by im3w1l on Sunday May 24, 2020 @05:13AM (#23290273)
That diseases come in waves seems like evidence of herd immunity to me. Like starting with a naive population you get a wave of infection. People become immune, spreading (mostly) stops. Over the years immunity is weakened because of old people dying and new people being born. Eventually the fraction of the population that is immune is low enough that a new wave gets going.
Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by somewhereoutth on Saturday May 23, 2020 @08:29PM (#23287975)
Absolutely right. People need to understand this.
Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by catalogia on Saturday May 23, 2020 @10:57PM (#23288717)
> There has never been herd immunity for polio, measles, or even for chicken pox.

I think you've got a selection bias there. Those illnesses are household names because they are/were so prevalent. But what of the illnesses that never became prevalent enough to become household names because populations developed immunity fast enough to suppress the spread?

Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by xyzzy_plugh on Sunday May 24, 2020 @01:03AM (#23289250)
What's the last illness that never became prevalent enough to become a household name because populations developed immunity fast enough to suppress the spread?

I can't think of any.