With what we know of the age dependence of the CFR, it is not unreasonable to think #1. In fact, until it broke into long term care facilities, it would fly under the radar fairly well.

Remember, for #2, it is not that most people stay asymptomatic. They are usually pre-symptomatic, and do have the symptoms later. Just for the majority of folks <60, they are a bad cold. If you are under 20, not even a bad one.

And from some comments down thread, #3 is as likely to be wrong with these having more false negatives. So, tough to say.