Re:Deconfinement: The Price of Human Life
by sigotirandolas on Tuesday May 19, 2020 @05:15AM
(#23232883)
There have been many, many more cases than the official confirmed (=medically tested/diagnosed positive) cases. For example data in Spain points to 5% prevalence (~2M infected) with ~25k deaths (official number, may be higher due to unverified and side cases).
Do you know if the serological data in Spain has also per-city estimates? I doubt the 5% is evenly distributed across the population, I'm expecting higher percentages in Madrid, for example.
Re:Deconfinement: The Price of Human Life
by sigotirandolas on Sunday May 24, 2020 @11:57AM
(#23292388)
If I remember correctly the data from Spain is also available itemized by region (autonomous community), and indeed the most population-dense regions have a higher prevalence. I believe the data isn't broken down by city, but it should be obvious that they're going to have a higher prevalence as well.
I can't follow the argument. The Hong Kong Flu caused more deaths without the economy shutting down than this epidemic with the economy shutting down, therefore what?
Re:Deconfinement: The Price of Human Life
by boomboomsubban on Tuesday May 19, 2020 @12:11PM
(#23236495)
The shutdown looks like it will lead to both epidemics having roughly the same amount of deaths. Unless you think the shutdown had minimal effect, without it the death rate would be far worse than the Hong Kong Flu.
The other way to look at it, even with the quarentine this pandemic will kill a similar number of people.
If the reports were true that "half the workers were in bed," that would mean there were millions of cases, yet only ~50k deaths. Compare that to the current pandemic, where France has 25k deaths in ~150k cases.