Of course, for a lot of business that's simply not possible (they were already at capacity), and for the rest that's very unlikely, but it seems possible for some very specific industries.
Companies need lending to survive. But the immediate business performance would cause an immediate breach of covenants or terms, forcing actions like margin calls or liquidation. That would leave both lender and company worse off. So instead they agree to substitute in some plausible values with the expectation that business will return to “normal” sooner or later, inside the lifetime of said contract.
I havent seen anyone actually posit that revenue/earnings/profit are actually going to fully return immediately, nor that theyll capture that “deferred” business. As always matt levine had a good take on this last week.
Restaurants? No, those meals are gone. Oil changes? No, you've driven less miles. Haircuts? You're not going to get two to celebrate. Clothing? Maybe.. because things are still wearing out. Travel? Nope. Technology? Maybe. Durable goods and appliances? More likely.
What are you thinking of?
If you need to have something inspected once a year, then you might have been able to postpone it some, but you'll need to do it eventually.
Also travel is not so clear. I realise I am quite lucky, but my bottleneck for travel is vacation days. I will still go on holidays the same amount of time this year, but it might be in a different place than expected if the borders do not reopen.
But yes, it certainly does not apply to the majority of businesses.
If things pick back up to February levels on June 1st, we're still at -25%. That's the absolute best case scenario and there's nothing that backs that up.
If things start at half and ramp up to full through December, we're closer to -40%. That's more likely than the first scenario but feels unlikely.
If things start start slowly in June and grow monthly for December to be at February levels, we're closer to -50%.
Forget the industry, how many companies can survive losing half their revenue (not profit) for the year?
(Obviously, this assumes a flat/even revenue distribution during the year. Companies that have their busy season in March-June are even worse off.)