Re:Have the record number of investors in the stock market l...
by H8crilA on Saturday May 16, 2020 @10:21AM
(#23203580)
SPX at ~1600 so that CAPE matches its historical median. 1600 would be the "neutral" position on that metric.
And, if history is any guide, SPX can fall all the way to ~500 without breaking all time lows on CAPE (this would be extreme, but is not entirely impossible, and inflation is not required for this scenario - look at 1950s).
Numbers would have to be adjusted if inflation speeds up. It hasn't sped up at all yet, in fact all we see today is deflation.
And, if history is any guide, SPX can fall all the way to ~500 without breaking all time lows on CAPE (this would be extreme, but is not entirely impossible, and inflation is not required for this scenario - look at 1950s).
Numbers would have to be adjusted if inflation speeds up. It hasn't sped up at all yet, in fact all we see today is deflation.