Or maybe they know Waymo is there to burn through cash without doing anything useful (like any other “research” project at any place that has infinite stream of money from oil or, let’s say, ads) and expect it to be overtaken by competition and want to get out.

All research projects from Google (and similar companies with "infinite stream of money") aren't doing anything useful? Seems overly cynical.

They're at least responsible for a large chunk of ML research, which is directly to directly improve their products (Maps, Photos, YouTube, etc.).

A common practice is to perform market research by expressing interest in acquiring competitors and then having them provide technical information to show acquisition worthiness. It’s all supposedly under NDA but the reality is that the big tech companies can easily sue you into oblivion and your lawsuit isn’t going anywhere. If you even try, welcome to the blacklist. Also the lawyers fees on your side are enough to put you out of business.

They are fishing for understanding of the market and sometimes general approaches or parameters of possibility. You are providing free insight. It’s the same when you pitch a VC. You just give them more and more free insight. Hopefully they provide value in return.

If this is merely a scheme for Google to sweep the losses under the carpet, what's in it for the investors who'll be left holding the bag? And mind you, in order for the losses to go away, the value of the company at the time it's spun out needs to exceed the billions of dollars already invested in it over the span of 12 years. (Including $120m paid out in bonuses to Anthony Levandowski alone.)

I wasn't trying to say it is "merely" a scheme. Its sort of like shorting some stock and at the same time buying a call option for twice that many shares above the price that you shorted it for.

The short part gives you some cash now and if the stock drops even further, you can cover the short and keep the profit. But if the stock goes up, just when there is a margin call you've got an "in the money" call option to cover it. So if it is shooting up you exercise the call, cover the short with half the shares, and profit when the other half keep shooting up.

Anyone can nominally do this on any stock, but there are tax advantages to the company that does it with one of their own subsidiaries.

What you're desrcbing is fiduciaries violating their responsbilities to shareholders.

I am sure that at least 50.1% of voting shares explicitly approve any crazy scheme Alphabet comes up with.

That has been their get-out-of-jail-free card since, well forever.

50.1% doesn't magically absolve you of the responsibility to maximize shareholder value. They could vote to sell to Alphabet for $1 - it would result in a massive lawsuit.

Yes, people can and will sue for any reason. But in this case this is how the suit would likely go ...

plaintiff: "Your honor these share holders are suing the company for violating its fiduciary duty."

company; "Your honor, we know that some share holders may not always agree with the majority, but we made sure that over 50% of the share holders were on board with every decision we've made. We move to dismiss."

Judge: "You have documented that the majority agreed?"

company: "Yes your honor"

Judge: "And every shareholder has access to the bylaws of the company which state in clear and unequivocal terms that all decisions will be decided by a simple majority vote?"

company: "Yes your honor."

"case dismissed."