Coronavirus: Germany infection rate rises as lockdown eases

Re:Coronavirus: Germany infection rate rises as lockdown eases by newacct583 on Monday May 11, 2020 @09:03AM (#23141620)

No. You're going to need to cite me some analysis with real numbers if you genuinely want to convince me that a 3x growth over 20 days is consistent with an Rt less than one.

I'm serious: that site is bad. It's a bad model. You have to stop reading and linking it. The only way to make it "right" is to assume (as you are) wild divergence between measured case incidence and "actual" unmeasured infection statistics, which isn't borne out in any papers I'm aware of from any outbreaks anywhere.

Basically: I'm telling you that measured data makes this model very wrong. And your response is to tell me that this is because measured data is itself extremely (like 3x!) wrong. That's bad science.

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Re:Coronavirus: Germany infection rate rises as lockdown eases by pps43 on Monday May 11, 2020 @01:05PM (#23144360)

I'm not trying to convince you. I'm just saying that the data you quoted does not contradict the model I linked to. New cases in Iowa are essentially flat for a while now, which is consistent with Rt close to 1. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/iowa

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