Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?
by nostrademons on Sunday May 10, 2020 @04:53PM
(#23136064)
But that's the point. Parent poster is assuming that the future profits of a company won't change over the next 15-20 years because of coronavirus. Everyone in this subthread is pointing out that that's not a valid assumption. We've already seen the discount rate drop to zero in the last couple months. Will it stay there? Will we get hyperinflation? Will we get deflation as laid-off workers lose their spending power? Will the target market of many companies end up dead? Will companies go bankrupt through lack of cash flow? Are we going to see civil unrest or a breakdown of political authority?
Many of these are permanent consequences that will absolutely effect earnings 15-20 years in the future. The market seems to be pricing in an assumption that this will be a blip: we'll reopen, businesses will rehire, and 2021 will look much like 2019. I don't believe that's likely.
Many of these are permanent consequences that will absolutely effect earnings 15-20 years in the future. The market seems to be pricing in an assumption that this will be a blip: we'll reopen, businesses will rehire, and 2021 will look much like 2019. I don't believe that's likely.