Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by war1025 on Sunday May 10, 2020 @03:09PM (#23135200)

One interesting possibility is that the people most likely to get infected (different from most vulnerable if infected) are going to get infected this first round.

What that potentially means is that they will act as effectively a fire-break for the broader population.

Basically a burning of the highest throughput avenues for mass spread.

If true, that would mean we get lots of localized outbreaks, but the probability of that spreading back out into an uncontrolled pandemic is much lower.

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Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by shibeouya on Monday May 11, 2020 @09:47AM (#23142071)

There are recent research papers supporting that theory, and lowering the threshold for herd immunity much lower to 30-40%

If that is the case then places like NYC are probably pretty close.

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Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by ethbro on Monday May 11, 2020 @10:30AM (#23142521)

Any links?

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Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by nate_meurer on Monday May 11, 2020 @12:41PM (#23144056)

https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.03085 - The disease-induced herd immunity level for Covid-19 is substantially lower than the classical herd immunity level

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v... - Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold

This effect will be amplified if the initial vaccinations are given (as they should be) to the potential superspreaders, like healthcare workers and essential manual laborers.

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Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by bavell on Sunday May 10, 2020 @03:34PM (#23135400)

Very insightful, hadn't considered that!

I'm not sure how effective this 'firebreak' will be in practice but it will certainly slow the spread to some degree.

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