- Bayesian interpretation would use what we do know about viruses in general, coronavirus specifically, anD sars/Mers as the prior.

Has anyone here done the research that we can use as a reasonable prior? My assumption was those diseases all produce long lasting antibodies.

An initial review of immunity/reinfections with coronaviruses suggests we shouldn’t be optimistic about the duration of immunity:

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long...

As I've discussed elsewhere, there is indeed evidence to the contrary.

There's also no way to decelerate things through false humility. We're in an urgent crisis, so we must make decisions now based on whatever evidence is available; there's no position of safety we can retreat to while waiting to learn more.

So provide a sliver of this evidence. You keep alluding to it, but your story doesn’t correspond to the CDC’s own statements, nor the initial review of coronavirus immunity durations I linked.

What kind of evidence are you looking for? I can point you to public health authorities saying immunity works and lasts for ~a year [1][2], but I suspect you've seen these statements already. If you're looking for a scientific study unambiguously proving it, we of course won't be able to have that until a year has passed.

[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-fauci-those-who-...

[2] https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52446965