Re:The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human t...
by ben_w on Saturday May 09, 2020 @08:04AM
(#23124047)
2100 is way too far out to predict anything.
The cost of gene synthesis is roughly 20 years behind gene sequencing [0]. Extrapolated, by 2040, arbitrarily modifying your offspring will represent a trivial fraction (~0.5%) of the total cost of starting a family.
Follow Moore’s law (considering lower costs rather than boosted performance) and assuming the Kurzweil estimate for full brain emulation, then by 2047, uploaded minds would be cheaper than the food eaten by subsistence farmers. [1]
The first thing most people suggest when they hear about 3D printers is printing another 3D printer. It is definitely possible because that’s what every living cell does; while nobody knows how to do this now, if we can make it happen with the rocks of Mercury, it only takes four decades to build a Dyson swarm. [2]
The questions are, what happens first, and how does humanity collectively react to that?
The cost of gene synthesis is roughly 20 years behind gene sequencing [0]. Extrapolated, by 2040, arbitrarily modifying your offspring will represent a trivial fraction (~0.5%) of the total cost of starting a family.
Follow Moore’s law (considering lower costs rather than boosted performance) and assuming the Kurzweil estimate for full brain emulation, then by 2047, uploaded minds would be cheaper than the food eaten by subsistence farmers. [1]
The first thing most people suggest when they hear about 3D printers is printing another 3D printer. It is definitely possible because that’s what every living cell does; while nobody knows how to do this now, if we can make it happen with the rocks of Mercury, it only takes four decades to build a Dyson swarm. [2]
The questions are, what happens first, and how does humanity collectively react to that?
[0] https://image.slidesharecdn.com/gblocks-webinar2014-14012312...
[1] https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/a/67531
[2] https://youtu.be/zQTfuI-9jIo