Totally second this notion as there is no actual transparency into the market so no-one (save for maybe a select few insiders) actually know whatsup.

Anyone who claims to know things (beyond an idea, theory, or speculation) about the equities market at large whether on HN or anywhere is outing themselves as full of it.

This underlying opacity cannot be ignored for flies in the face of all the 'already priced in' arguments and 'rational actor' notions.