Re:April Unemployment Rate Rose to a Record 14.7%
by AznHisoka on Friday May 08, 2020 @09:48AM
(#23114814)
CNBC and financial publications always love to attach a narrative/reason to every stock movement. But the fact is nobody knows. There are just too many participants, each with their own agenda and prejudices.
The “priced in” narrative is just another made up reason, but as you said, it could simply because investors believe the government just won’t let the market fail.
Re:April Unemployment Rate Rose to a Record 14.7%
by nickff on Friday May 08, 2020 @01:47PM
(#23117454)
The problem with saying things are 'priced-in' is that it's a basically worthless statement. There are so many things priced in, that it is impossible to know or understand them all. Some are right, some are wrong, and many are in-between.
I am an efficient markets believer, but I think most of the talking heads are a bunch of hot air.
Re:April Unemployment Rate Rose to a Record 14.7%
by AznHisoka on Friday May 08, 2020 @02:36PM
(#23117958)
It is a very worthless statement if you really think about it. Everything is priced in.. because that's literally the definition of a price - it's the cumulation of everyone's belief of what is going to happen. That's like saying water is wet.
Re:April Unemployment Rate Rose to a Record 14.7%
by pbourke on Friday May 08, 2020 @11:06AM
(#23115587)
The Fed’s actions are the only rational explanation. Many large companies who had access to the investment-grade bond market were locked out and having to raise as if they were junk quality. Then Jay Powell said the Fed would buy corporate debt and would pretend that everyone’s credit rating was the same as before the crash in March.
The market hit a hairpin turn around that time and started heading up.
shrug
Perhaps investors believe that governments will do whatever it takes to make investors whole given the political power investors wield through their votes and political donations. Perhaps they are even correct. Why don’t headline writers say that? “Stocks continue to rise while unemployment goes up because rich people confident they control governments”? It’s as likely or more to be true than the “priced in” narrative they’ve been hawking.