It's my understanding that the bankruptcy applies only to the purchased subsidiary, so the PE firm only stands to lose the principal they put in at the start.
If so, it sounds like the PE firm gets all the upside, but is less exposed to the downside. So they are incentivized to rachet up the risk.
All deals are different. You're probably not going to have any collateral put up by the actual PE firm in most cases.
> It's my understanding that the bankruptcy applies only to the purchased subsidiary, so the PE firm only stands to lose the principal they put in at the start.
In most cases this is true. Depending on how aggressive the firm has been and how long they've been involved, they might have already dividended out their principal.
> If so, it sounds like the PE firm gets all the upside, but is less exposed to the downside. So they are incentivized to rachet up the risk.
This is a correct but simplified conclusion. They're incentivized but there's usually a set of checks and balances in the form of banks providing financing and investors willing to finance deals. This system of checks and balances typically erodes as the business cycle/bull market rides on.
The binding constraint in most of these deals is how much leverage you're able to get away with.
The community (workers, local suppliers, and governments) are seeing their jobs, livelihoods, and institutions put at risk, and they likely are seeing no reward for success. They are not empowered to decline the increase in risk, even though they certainly have a stake in the future of the company.
It feels like economic strip mining to me.
p.s. thank you for the clear explanations
That's the idealistic case, and it does happen. But then there are the counter examples we all know...
To take the company private, the lenders require an interest of 10% and 10% principal
Some PE company (or the CEO, whatever) thinks they can make this work, so they come up with $10M of principal, take the lenders money and buy the company. The first thing they do is sell as many of those underlying assets as they can to pay down the debt. You now have a company that has $5M a year in earnings before debt, $10M in assets (the principal, serviving as the required reserve for the lenders), and $50M in debt, with a debt service of ~$5M a year (so really 0 earnings).
If the the PE company does a great job managign the company and the economy is good, so they double earnings to $10M, then the company is now worth $50M ($10M in income x 10 + assets - debt) and the PE company made a 5x return already (FYI- I know I'm abusing my financial math, fake numbers, but its illustrative).
Now lets assume they were wrong and a global pandemic breaks out, and the companies start losign money to the tune of $1M a year. If the company had stayed publicly owned, they might have to cut their dividend and burn through reserves, maybe sell off some assets, but other than that all their employees and the majority of their assets are probably fine. The company's market cap is a lot less, but shareholders don't go to zero eithier.
The world where the company went private in an LBO? That $10M cushion runs out in less than 2 years. They are bankrupt. They might get a few more chances to restructure debt and such, but eventually the lenders give up and liquidate the company a la Toys R Us. The employees get fired and local landlords lose tenants. Pension funds disappear. It's not fun.