But I do agree that PostgreSQL has way too little tools to nail down the performance even though they have downsides. Tools like pinning execution plans would be nice, as it has less severe worst case behaviors. As would be the ability to just pass the execution plan directly, although that would have severe cross-version compatibility implications and security will also be hard to nail down after the fact because of all the "can't happen" assumptions sprinkled around in executor code. And even just plain plan hints would be great to have, be it the heavy handed "join in this order", "use this index", or the more graceful "this clause is way less selective than you think", "this clause is functionally dependent on that one" or "assume there is correlation between ordering and predicates".
In my estimation, if you're not already intimately familiar with the intricacies of performant SQL, chances are you're not playing in a space where a no-SQL architecture is an appropriate fit anyway. And you're certainly not in a position to make an informed decision between SQL and no-SQL. It's a much better use of this hypothetical person's time to set up Mariadb or Sqlite and do a deep dive into the fundamentals query performance.
Every single time the SQL Server query optimiser did something obviously wrong, rebuilding statistics fixed it. The problem I had with SQL Server wasn't its reliance of statistics—it's not like they could work any other way—it's that it failed to maintain its statistics correctly. Any time that statistics stop being correct is a bug. It should be able to maintain them itself and trigger rebuilds whenever there's any doubt about them.
As an example, say you have a database of all cars ever produced with indexes on model and production date. If you are looking for the latest Ford F-150 then the best plan is to just start looking backwards by date and you will find one soon enough. Much faster than looking up all F-150s and picking the latest one. On the other hand, if you are looking for latest Ford Model-T, that plan is going to be catastrophically terrible, going through 93 years of car production before finding the correct one.