Over the past few years, the evidence linking human health and overall mortality to isolation and human contact has been increasing. Don't get me wrong I'm staying locked down for the foreseeable future, but I have family and close friends whose mental health I'm seriously worried about. Not to mention physical health from stress, isolation, reduced activity, and can't afford to eat as healthy / stress-eating.
No idea if those are trends that will even come close to direct covid deaths, but we can't make informed decisions considering them.
> But it's pretty clearly all Corona-related.
If you count the above as "Corona-related", then I don't think the number has much meaning in terms of informing public policy.
Of course as that article and any other responsible ones should point out, the benefits and harms fall quite unevenly, and there is a lot of real misery too. And at some point the economic harm from ongoing lock down would certainly affect more and more people regardless of previous income. But even so as far as society overall goes it at worst looks like a wash right now, and seems more likely to lean towards fewer deaths. So excess vs previous years does look like a valid number to use as some level of gut check given the ongoing poor state of testing.
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1: https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/recessions-dont-lead...
2: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-offers-a-clear-view...
Here are some good state-by state graphs [1], and here's a country-wide graph [2]
By any measure, our "excess deaths" since February have spiked enormously, and significantly more than the current official Covid death count.
Some may be due to hospitals overflowing preventing other care. But it's pretty clearly all Corona-related.
1. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronaviru...
2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/05/02/exc...