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Re:Miscalculation at every level left U.S. unequipped to fig... by jakeogh on Saturday May 02, 2020 @04:02PM (#23054474)
Indeed. As this tails off, it's going to be the official spot to check the prediction[1] linked here against.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23028036

Also: https://mobile.twitter.com/johncardillo/status/1256577527662...

Re:Miscalculation at every level left U.S. unequipped to fig... by rrss on Saturday May 02, 2020 @07:06PM (#23055592)
Neat, so come back in a few months.

Also, I haven't got a clue who John Cardillo is, but that tweet doesn't really say much other than he thinks something is a scam. The 37k currently reported at the CDC link corresponds to the deaths reported for ~12 days ago at https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/blob/master/us.csv, so it isn't clear that the discrepancy is not largely explained by the lag to process death certificates.

EDIT:

I looked at some of his other tweets, and it seems like he is upset that the count here from the National Vital Statistics System https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm doesn't match the count here https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/case..., and interprets that to mean that the CDC is lying to the U.S. population. I disagree with that assessment, and the CDC explains the NVSS data here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/tech_notes.htm:

> Provisional death counts in this report will not match counts in other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments.

John Cardillo says that "You’ve been misled while lunatics try to destroy your county and steal your way of life" (presumably he means "country"?), the CDC explains the discrepancy. I'll go with the CDC.