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Re:Comprehensive Tutorial on Time Series Modelling and Forec... by laretluval on Friday May 01, 2020 @09:55PM (#23048403)
People love making complicated models. It’s fun and feels like you are having insights. Fitting a boring old ARIMA feels like work.
Re:Comprehensive Tutorial on Time Series Modelling and Forec... by remarkEon on Friday May 01, 2020 @11:00PM (#23048757)
I've seen this in real time. I don't do statistics as part of my day job, but I've had enough experience and keep up with the field to know what I'm talking about. I've seen senior engineers try to ram in an overly specified ARIMA model just to claim that they've "improved" the system. It worked far worse than whatever model we were using before was (never got to take a look under the hood of that one unfortunately), was prone to wild swings in forecasting, and was eventually deprecated and we reverted to the old model.