It's not a lame comparison at all. If you bought Bitcoin in 2010, you've seen a 8,900,000% ROI. The asset may go up another 10-1000x from here. Bitcoin will outlast Uber. And if you're still comparing it to Beanie Babies 11 years later, it's likely you don't understand finance or blockchain, and you haven't been paying attention to what's happening in the past few years.
Or it may go down to 0. Your assertion is as likely as mine, and you’re not basing it on anything it all. Past performance != future performance.
> Bitcoin will outlast Uber.
Ok, that doesn’t mean it’ll be worth anything. Or if it does that doesn’t mean anyone will have their keys haha. Every random walk down the timeline results in 100% of keys lost haha.
> And if you're still comparing it to Beanie Babies 11 years later, it's likely you don't understand finance or blockchain, and you haven't been paying attention to what's happening in the past few years.
It’s because I’ve paid attention. Citing the divine scriptures of satoshi isn’t sufficient dismissal.
When analyzing an asset class you have to look at probabilities. Probability of Bitcoin going to zero during a financial crisis, where people are losing faith in local currencies around the world:
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/article/Lebanon-PM-bla...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/demand-for-bitcoin-surges-in-...
...is near zero. It's much more likely that adoption continues and Bitcoin matures as a financial asset class, not just in the developing world, but here in the U.S.:
https://www.cryptopolitan.com/caitlin-long-to-build-a-crypto...
https://decrypt.co/resources/bakkt
https://bankless.substack.com/p/9-going-bankless-w-maker-and...
As for the random walk and 100% of keys being lost...maybe if you march out the timeline long enough, the whole human species isn't going to exist any longer...so there's that. But I would argue strongly that Bitcoin (and Ethereum) has better prospects than any other digital infrastructure.
In the mean time, the next few decades look very bright indeed.
BTC has dropped 50% in value over the last three years, while the currency has inflated 5%. I know which I'd rather hold. Actually I'd rather hold neither, I'd rather be invested.
> It's much more likely that adoption continues and Bitcoin matures as a financial asset class, not just in the developing world, but here in the U.S.:
Fewer people care about it than practically ever:
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin
> As for the random walk and 100% of keys being lost...maybe if you march out the timeline long enough, the whole human species isn't going to exist any longer...so there's that. But I would argue strongly that Bitcoin (and Ethereum) has better prospects than any other digital infrastructure.
20% of BTC has already been lost.
Probably more if you count Satoshi's wallet, which likely belongs to Paul Calder Le Roux, currently working with the DEA as penance for his many, many crimes. [1]
The price is largely propped up through a massive fraud perpetrated by Tether and Bitfinex. All the folks with those heavy, heavy bags have no interest in surfacing it, as it has become too big to fail within the crypto community.
[1] https://www.wired.com/story/was-bitcoin-created-by-this-inte...
Bitcoin as a "passive investment" is such a lame comparison because it does, literally, nothing, just like hanging onto some beanie babies. Beanie babies, but much more wasteful.
[note] Anyone who's an employee or an accredited investor.