News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:A case for ending lockdown by shkkmo on Thursday April 30, 2020 @10:05AM (#23030905)
When have some expertise, you should absolutely evaluate ideas on their merits.

When you lack the expertise to do that effectively, you should listen to the experts (ideally those that demonstrate that they are evaluating ideas based on their merits).

The trick is determine which questions you have the expertise to evaluate for yourself and which you are better of relying on experts to evaluate.

Unfortunately, this is an area where a large number of non-experts vastly overestimate the difficulty of the material vs their own level of knowledge. This leads to the increasing proliferation of misinformation and misleading analysis like yours.

Credentials are not the only way to acquire or demonstrate expertise. You say you are a "dude that likes to read research papers", how many epidemiological research papers have you read? How much time have you spent discussing those papers with epidemiological experts? Did you reach out to any of those experts to have them take a first pass as fixing any mistakes you made before you decided to post it publicly

Instead you decided to broadcast your ignorance with confidence about an area already ripe with misinformation that is costing people their lives.

You are being irresponsible.

Re:A case for ending lockdown by quotemstr on Thursday April 30, 2020 @10:30AM (#23031159)
Absolutely wrong. Analysis done by informed laymen is essential in breaking intellectual logjams in established fields. These situations happen over and over again in history. It's increasingly looking like we have one of these logjams in public health right now.

Ideas need to be evaluated on their merits in all cases, especially in times of controversy.

Re:A case for ending lockdown by shkkmo on Thursday April 30, 2020 @02:00PM (#23033899)
> Analysis done by informed laymen is essential in breaking intellectual logjams in established fields.

Which is why it is important that people with the expertise evaluate those ideas on their merits.

What doesn't help is when less informed laymen think they can accurately judge the validity of ideas put forward by slightly more informed laymen.

What active hurts is when those less informed laymen start spreading their half-balked ideas and trying to impact policy without making an effort to get their ideas validated by people with the experience to find the simple, obvious errors they are making.

Re:A case for ending lockdown by ryankemper on Thursday April 30, 2020 @05:15PM (#23036231)
> without making an effort to get their ideas validated by people

Me posting this is literally me doing that, so your visible irritation is very oddly placed.

Re:A case for ending lockdown by shkkmo on Thursday April 30, 2020 @11:52PM (#23038952)
HN is a platform dominated by laymen in this field. Posting this article here is an attempt to publish and widen distribution. It is not an attempt to reach out to people with expertise prior to publishing.
Re:A case for ending lockdown by ryankemper on Thursday April 30, 2020 @05:14PM (#23036220)
> Credentials are not the only way to acquire or demonstrate expertise. You say you are a "dude that likes to read research papers", how many epidemiological research papers have you read? How much time have you spent discussing those papers with epidemiological experts? Did you reach out to any of those experts to have them take a first pass as fixing any mistakes you made before you decided to post it publicly

> Instead you decided to broadcast your ignorance with confidence about an area already ripe with misinformation that is costing people their lives.

This is not a fair characterization; I was very clear that this represented my "first draft" and that I was looking for feedback specifically to have people poke holes in it.

Fortunately, a lot of people did have substantive contributions that pointed out errors or places where the arguments were weak, as opposed to merely engaging in sanctimonious gatekeeping as you are doing.

Re:A case for ending lockdown by shkkmo on Thursday April 30, 2020 @11:49PM (#23038929)
> This is not a fair characterization; I was very clear that this represented my "first draft" and that I was looking for feedback specifically to have people poke holes in it.

Where was this made clear? The closest I can see is at the very end where you call it a living document and will accept pull requests that match the "style and intentions of this document" which to me sounds like you are only interested in meeting pull requests that strength your argument to further your intended narrative.

I appreciate your adding a disclaimer about your lack of relevant experience, but even it says nothing about this being a "first draft" that you expect to have holes poked in.

So I fully stand behind my characterization and I find your use of the term "sanctimonious gatekeeping" to far less of a "fair characterization".

Re:A case for ending lockdown by ryankemper on Friday May 01, 2020 @03:02AM (#23039711)
Okay, I half concede your point. I expressed the desire to have holes poked in my top-level comment contextualizing HN submission / thread comments itself, but did not make clear reference to it in the document itself. So the external dependency means that you are by-and-large correct.

The part I don't concede is this notion:

> Instead you decided to broadcast your ignorance with confidence about an area already ripe with misinformation that is costing people their lives.

In that, it strays far too close to the dangerous notion of "advocating for ending the lockdown, however flawed, is killing people". Which is a notion I cannot and probably never will be able to get behind.

Re:A case for ending lockdown by shkkmo on Friday May 01, 2020 @09:04AM (#23041571)
> In that, it strays far too close to the dangerous notion of "advocating for ending the lockdown, however flawed, is killing people".

I have no problem with advocating to end the lockdown. We need to do it as soon as practicable. You ar correct in supposing that a lockdown that lasts longer than necessary ends lives. I think there are some good steps we can take towards that, such as reopening underutilized hospitals in areas where that utilization has plateued.

You are doing more than that, you are trying to summarize everything we know about covid. In an environment with so much misinformation about covid floating around that is demonstrably dangerous, it behooves is to be extra care to not feed into that cycle.