Re:Tesla Q1 2020 Update
by tempestn on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @04:35PM
(#23023935)
Change in stock price on earnings news tends to correlate to the performance relative to expectations. The estimated performance is already priced in, so the movement will be based on how much better or worse the actual results were than the estimated/anticipated ones. In this case, it was obviously a bad quarter for Tesla, but the bump suggests that traders expected it to be even worse.
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> but the bump suggests that traders expected it to be even worse.
You're a bit too kind with your wording, it doesn't _suggests_ so much as it literally _means_ that. Plenty of websites show you what investors are expecting, if Tesla says more/less price fluctuates accordingly.
> Plenty of websites show you what investors are expecting
Yes and no. Plenty of websites make predictions. Most money in the market however is controlled by institutions that don't tell you shit about what they are expecting or anything else that they aren't legally required to tell you.
Normally, and apparently in this case, yes. It is possible for a stock to go up on earnings that don't beat expectations though, due to other concurrent factors, like unexpected positive news regarding future prospects, or even an unrelated broad market movement.
Re:Tesla Q1 2020 Update
by AmericanChopper on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @05:16PM
(#23024426)
To add something to this, traders have their own expectations of how companies will perform relative to their published estimates. I used to work at a unicorn that would consistently exceed its published estimates, and the stock price took a non-trivial hit the first time it ever met them.