U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

Re:U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Rec... by basch on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @11:57AM (#23020713)

QQQ was a good growth bet, but so is pure AMZN. 50% of QQQ is FAAAMIN (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Intel, Netflix, with Cisco right below but they dont fit the acronym.)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&t...

Investing in Amazon is almost as profitable as a 3x leveraged parity risk bet on QQQ. I get what you are saying, "buy when people are fearful", but do you really think it will be more profitable than betting on the top 6 tech stocks?

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Re:U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Rec... by jhallenworld on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @01:08PM (#23021543)

Yeah, this is purely fear- people overshoot on the way down, you can profit. I made some easy money in 2008 on certain banks that were obviously not going to fail. The bet is that things return to some sort of normal. I would not normally buy these stocks, they have nowhere near the growth potential as the tech stocks.

I guess I don't believe in the statistical basis of the risk calculations (bell curve is an invalid model for sure for stocks), so only one stock is way riskier than you would think and tech only is already exposing you to some kinds of systemic risk.

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Re:U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Rec... by basch on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @02:11PM (#23022307)

In theory QQQ might not be "tech" forever. FAAAMIN could be replaced by the next big thing.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/a-visual-history-of-the-lar...

https://howmuch.net/articles/100-years-of-americas-top-10-co...

QQQ would be a hedge on "big" but not necessarily just these current big.

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