Re:U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Rec...
by alexpetralia on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @10:02AM
(#23019310)
Yes in fact the only thing you wouldn't want to hold is dollars; you'd want to hold things that will earn more dollars in the future (an inflation hedge), such as equities. Then you'd only care about FX rates (to the extent you are purchasing internationally), and I don't see any indication the FX futures market is moving against the dollar.
Re:U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Rec...
by silicon2401 on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @12:26PM
(#23021012)
if holding onto dollars right now is bad, could you suggest what would be a good place to put cash?
Re:U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Rec...
by alexpetralia on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @01:41PM
(#23021949)
I did use the conditional "would" because I don't think the market is actually expecting inflation, which would erode the value of dollars.
Expected inflation can be calculated as the difference between a Treasury and a TIPS of the same tenor - say 5 years.
Treasury yields: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/i...
TIPS: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/bonds/tips
So 5 years out, the expected inflation is .37 - (-.418) = .788%; pretty low. In other words, the market doesn't expect all this money printing to translate into general inflation (as measured by the CPI).
Personally I would be dollar-cost averaging into equities.
Re:U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Rec...
by elliotec on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @01:52PM
(#23022073)
I don't think they're strictly saying holding dollars is bad right now, just that it could be if inflation became a thing, which is not happening because as said by someone else, almost all other currencies are in the same boat. Plus everything is based on the dollar in the world economy. To answer your question though, if we were in a place where keeping cash was becoming a problem, that's where assets come in like stocks, bonds, real estate.
Re:U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Rec...
by mixmastamyk on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @04:45PM
(#23024065)
Gold and assets that won't go to zero, essential companies and real estate. Just don't expect them to not get hit as well in the short term.
If the dollar gets less valuable due to the government printing cash (or buying bonds or issuing loans they are expected to later write off), then things denominated in dollars increase, even if the real value remains unchanged.
It's hard to tell if the dollar is weakening, because most other currencies are in the exact same position.