Maybe in a few decades. The imminent arrival of autonomous vehicles has been BS from the beginning. Our machine learning capabilities aren't anywhere close to making the idea viable.

Plenty of things could slow or derail that train for many years.

We could, for example, discover that getting the required accuracy outside of areas with specific characteristics is infeasibly hard to solve in general, let alone with the onboard computer.

We could have one or two horrific accidents fuel legal crackdowns that forbid driving AIs for a generation or more.

I was very bullish on self driving cars back in 2016, but nearly half a decade later and it doesn’t seem like we’ve made any progress at all, and it seems like a decent number of experts and industry insiders agree with me.

Self driving cars are coming, sure. But when?

Its coming, there is no doubt there. The question is: when? There are a lot of technical issues to solve, and Uber's capital burn isn't going to last forever. Are they (and their investors) willing to hold their breath for decades for truly safe, truly autonomous vehicles?