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A comment on The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May. Parent comment

Re:The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is bein... by MrGando on Monday April 27, 2020 @06:16PM (#23000749)
> The Bay Area's r is probably under 0.8 at this point

Could you tell me where are you getting this magic number ballpark estimate from? (somewhere concrete, not just your gut and imagination)

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Re:The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is bein... by usaar333 on Monday April 27, 2020 @06:28PM (#23000861)
Various data points. This is an upper bound, more calculated for Santa Clara county.

International comparisons to lockdown level and case count changes.

Assuming serial interval of 4 and > 10x non-detection rate on March 31 and 3x now gives you this.

Knowing people were dying if the disease in early February implies very high lack of detection when SIP was in place. (Likely over 800 infections a day when Santa Clara activated SIP)

Edit: More detailed explanation above.

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