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A comment on Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies. Parent comment

Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by treis on Sunday April 26, 2020 @05:31PM (#22990441)
>so we know most ICU patients are ventilated

This is where your logic fails. Most patients in the ICU at this point in time are ventilated. That doesn't (necessarily) mean that most patients that went to the ICU were ventilated. Those that are ventilated will stay in the ICU for weeks. Those that aren't might only be there for a few days.

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Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by Slartie on Monday April 27, 2020 @05:00PM (#22999980)
That uncertainty is why I already considered my calculation to be a rough estimate with a relatively large error window. But it is not large enough to allow the true percentage to even come close to 90%. For that, huge numbers of patients would have to be in ICU for a single day only, which is a ridiculous assumption.
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