News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Dissection of COVIDSafe (Android): Australian government'... by godelski on Sunday April 26, 2020 @03:15PM (#22989379)
> You can choose to get the virus - but that’s a pretty silly choice IMHO. And if you do, please stay home and don’t give it to anyone else.

I don't think this is unreasonable. Most people on HN are under 65 and thus will only get mild symptoms and likely just be out for a few days. Considering we're all probably working remotely, it is also easy to not infect others. Alternatively, a government overreach can last decades and these typically compound. This is a classic marshmallow now or two later problem.

So a few days to a week of being pretty sick vs potential government overreach? IMO it seems silly not to take the sick days (if we're assuming gov overreach).

Re:Dissection of COVIDSafe (Android): Australian government'... by Fargren on Sunday April 26, 2020 @03:37PM (#22989565)
> Most people on HN are under 65 and thus will only get mild symptoms and likely just be out for a few days.

This is the most likely case for people how are not vulnerable, but by no means a sure thing. Plenty of people without preexisting conditions have died or had to be hospitalized for days or weeks.

Data is a bit difficult to filter, but as an example 4.5% of deaths in NY are from the 18-44 age group[1]. Presumably a large fraction of those were not vulnerable, or not aware that they were. The fatality rate in that group is somewhere between 0.2% and 0.4%. You are not likely to die, but those are not chances to take without a second thought.

[1]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...

Re:Dissection of COVIDSafe (Android): Australian government'... by ACow_Adonis on Sunday April 26, 2020 @05:38PM (#22990497)
Understand I'm replying not because I think people should necessarily want/try to infect themselves with the virus, but because I'm against spreading misinformation and a misuse of statistics.

Australia is approaching 100 deaths and has several thousand confirmed cases through more widespread testing than new York, doing so at a higher and wider rate than New York who's stats/testing and medical regime show signs of severe failure/ problems.

Australia is yet to record a covid death under 40, and the one we have under 50 was technically a foreigner on a cruise ship.

All evidence from sources I'm familiar with that include widespread testing, good statistics and a healthy population point to a sub 0.2% for healthy young (young defined as sub 40 say, no comorbidities).

Now that being said, what I have seen repeatedly is a misclassification of sedentary young people with worrying lifestyle choices (think overweight/ smokers) as thinking of themselves as healthy with no comorbidities. Especially in some parts of the US, you can't think of yourself as healthy just because you live/look like everyone else.

And obviously, death rates in individual parts of the world will tend to be a function of age distribution, underlying health conditions, medical access, communication and the ability to rest and recuperate.

I personally wouldn't infect myself (the same way I wouldn't ride a motorcycle as my chosen mode of transport), but the relative risks and who the disease targets with mortalities should be better understood, and I'm not supportive of propaganda telling young people they're comparably at risk. They aren't.

Re:Dissection of COVIDSafe (Android): Australian government'... by Fargren on Monday April 27, 2020 @12:48PM (#22997514)
I appreciate this. I have not had an easy time finding any data that goes deeper than the 0.2% data point, which clearly doesn't give a full picture because it doesn't dive into the effect of comorbidity. Your sibling post links to data that puts the risk for people under 40 without comorbidity at roughly 1/6 of the 0.2, which is a big difference. Do you have any data, or any sources for your comment about the situation in Australia.
Re:Dissection of COVIDSafe (Android): Australian government'... by ACow_Adonis on Thursday April 30, 2020 @09:34PM (#23038261)
https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavir...

It's a live updated page, so I don't know what stats will be displayed each day, but I'm relatively confident they will support my claim unless things change drastically.

You will find an infographic with breakdowns of positive diagnosis (known cases) and deaths. Both are helpfully split by age groups and gender.

Re:Dissection of COVIDSafe (Android): Australian government'... by koyote on Sunday April 26, 2020 @05:59PM (#22990644)
We have quite a lot of mortality data from different countries around the world at this point so I am a bit disappointed that people are still spreading these unsubstantiated claims. I seem to be posting this link a lot lately, but here are the latest Italian stats on their deceased:

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Repor...

Over 23,000 deaths and deaths under 30 have not even passed double digits yet. Only 1.1% of all deaths were people under 50; and that's deaths, not infected.

Re:Dissection of COVIDSafe (Android): Australian government'... by doctor_eval on Sunday April 26, 2020 @06:04PM (#22990685)
This is nuts. A 30yo gets sick, infects a 60yo who goes to hospital and lands in ICU.

30yo then gets unrelated disease (chain saw accident. Burst appendix. Slipped in the shower.) Goes to hospital.

Repeat this often enough and suddenly you have a crisis in which there are not enough health care workers and beds, and now all ages are dying equally.

The idea that young people are not affected by this is just braindead stupid. Older people like me are directly affected; younger people indirectly. But we are all in this together.

Re:Dissection of COVIDSafe (Android): Australian government'... by Marsymars on Sunday April 26, 2020 @08:08PM (#22991550)
This was in the context of people choosing to get the virus, where the risk of infecting a 60yo is essentially nil.

At this point, I'd volunteer for infection where I'm locked in a prison cell with a box of Clif bars and some books and am not permitted any human contact until I'm no longer infectious. Am also willing to sign up for periodic re-infection to ensure that I do actually have immunity.

Re:Dissection of COVIDSafe (Android): Australian government'... by godelski on Monday April 27, 2020 @01:49AM (#22993213)
Thank you. I was trying to stress that I believed it was likely that the average HN user could 1) work from home and 2) more easily self isolate than the average person (considering that we're more likely to be "computer people").

I'll admit though, I didn't consider the chances of a chainsaw accident while sick. But you probably shouldn't be using a chainsaw if you're sick.

Re:Dissection of COVIDSafe (Android): Australian government'... by crypto2me on Monday April 27, 2020 @01:57AM (#22993254)
But we aren’t all in it together. It’s the young loosing jobs, facin a lifetime of higher taxes, moving to a world of mass surveillance and digital dictatorships.
Re:Dissection of COVIDSafe (Android): Australian government'... by chii on Monday April 27, 2020 @02:32AM (#22993418)
> moving to a world of mass surveillance and digital dictatorships.

that has already happened if you use any website that has google analytics or facebook. Ad for digital dictatorship - is it any different if the dictatorship has a friendly name like google?

I think you're conflating many different issues together: inequality of income, and societal injustice, with the actions needed to return economic activity back to a semblance of normalcy. It's as though you're asking for economic reforms as part of the economic life-line.