Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav...
by cm2187 on Friday April 24, 2020 @04:43AM
(#22965905)
The study wasn't one day but one week, and even then, I assume they wouldn't be stupid enough to collect blood from the same person over and over.
Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav...
by CydeWeys on Friday April 24, 2020 @12:27PM
(#22969839)
There's more than one store in NYC. People shop at a variety of places. Daily shoppers are likely not going to the same store over and over every day. Even during this pandemic I've hit up several different grocery stores and shops, because some things are hard to find.
Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav...
by leereeves on Thursday April 23, 2020 @08:58PM
(#22963497)
Are you describing the actual study or the study as you're imagining it? Because I imagine the statisticians have thought of these concerns and attempted to correct for them.
I find it interesting that this study corresponds to an IFR around 0.5%, similar to the IFR arrived at by other studies using very different methods. Perhaps the statisticians who conduct these studies actually know what they're doing better than Hacker News commenters.
And perhaps it's time to accept the politically inconvenient scientific truth these studies are revealing.
Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav...
by twomoretime on Friday April 24, 2020 @01:49AM
(#22965056)
>similar to the IFR arrived at by other studies using very different methods
With the wild range of IFR from so many studies, you could trivially cherry pick supporting studies for a bunch of different numbers, especially if you throw in am error range.
And you completely missed the point that people who are going outside a lot more often are both (a) more likely to have been exposed to COVID-19, and (b) more likely to be encountered by your survey. If there are e.g. 700 daily shoppers and 700 weekly shoppers going to a given store, then if you go on one day and sample every shopper you're not going to get half and half by population as you'd need to for a true random sample; instead, you're going to get 700 daily shoppers and only 100 weekly shoppers! This is a hugely biased sample!