Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav...
by mlyle on Thursday April 23, 2020 @08:11PM
(#22963171)
> And I am arguing, in the hypothetical case that the SC study is correct (I think it is flawed), then we have under estimated R0.
I don't necessarily believe the Santa Clara County study, but there are plenty of other alternatives, including a pretty likely one: gross undercounting at the start of the epidemic and/or earlier cryptic spread in communities. This is something that SCC public health officials / Dr. Sara Cody has stated in recent days is her belief-- I am not sure I agree.
At this point we're accumulating a lot of evidence IFR is 0.3-0.5%.
I don't necessarily believe the Santa Clara County study, but there are plenty of other alternatives, including a pretty likely one: gross undercounting at the start of the epidemic and/or earlier cryptic spread in communities. This is something that SCC public health officials / Dr. Sara Cody has stated in recent days is her belief-- I am not sure I agree.
At this point we're accumulating a lot of evidence IFR is 0.3-0.5%.