News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies. Parent comment

Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by nodamage on Thursday April 23, 2020 @07:30PM (#22962858)
> As others have said, for those around age 45 or less, Covid is equally or less dangerous than Influenza. And particular for those under 30 the flu is an order of magnitude more deadly at least.

Can you share the specific numbers you used to reach this conclusions? The reason I ask is because I'm seeing a lot of people in this thread comparing:

1) Overall influenza fatality rates to age stratified Covid fatality rates, and

2) Symptomatic influenza fatality rates to symptomatic + asymptomatic Covid fatality rates.

Both of which are highly flawed comparisons for reasons that should be obvious.

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by __blockcipher__ on Friday April 24, 2020 @07:57PM (#22974251)
Following up here:

I came across https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1741-.... It's not clear if it's referring to CFR or IFR but I imagine it must be CFR given how high some of the numbers are (500 deaths per 1000 in some cases).

I agree that finding properly stratified data that is comparing IFR and not just symptomatic CFR is quite tricky.

At a minimum though, if we assume the chart I linked is CFR and compare to the Covid 5-20% CFRs we've seen, we still get that order of magnitude difference for the very, very young. But like I said in my previous comment here, I don't think the statement for all under 30's holds. It'd have to be <18 years old (and to be clear while https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/1741... is helpful, I still haven't proven anything)

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by __blockcipher__ on Friday April 24, 2020 @02:46PM (#22971593)
I’ll try to dig up some sources later today. But briefly, on second thought “under 30” was sloppy of me to say and so that statement is probably false. I would expect for those 25-30 years old they should fall outside the range where Influenza kills a lot. So I think the order of magnitude is almost certainly true for those under 18, but I am now doubting it holds all the way up to age 30.
[ Parent | on HN ]