Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav...
by mlyle on Thursday April 23, 2020 @07:05PM
(#22962621)
> In San Diego people under 30 are close to 20% of total confirmed and over 5% of hospitalized cases.
People under 30 are over half the population in San Diego, so you've just said there's 1/10th as many of them in the hospital as we'd expect if the total risk were equal.
The serology data tells us that an even greater portion of cases in the young are missed-- they are probably actually half the number of infections in San Diego, but a much smaller proportion of hospitalized cases.
The current data implies something close to what he said: about a 1 in 500 to 1 in 1000 chance of hospitalization for people under age 35.
People under 30 are over half the population in San Diego, so you've just said there's 1/10th as many of them in the hospital as we'd expect if the total risk were equal.
The serology data tells us that an even greater portion of cases in the young are missed-- they are probably actually half the number of infections in San Diego, but a much smaller proportion of hospitalized cases.
The current data implies something close to what he said: about a 1 in 500 to 1 in 1000 chance of hospitalization for people under age 35.