Q is how many are dead when a region has 80% immunity (through vaccination or infection). Those dead should include also deaths due to lack of planned care, cuts in healthcare due to recession, suicides due to unemployment and so on.

Those countries that lock down and stop a first wave with only a few percent infected are basically betting on the arrival of effective treatment or effective containment.

Those that don’t are betting that containment is impossible and effective treatments and vaccines are a year out at least.

It’s impossible to say which scenario is right but I know I’d place my bet the same as the Swedish state epidemiologist.