Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by Symmetry on Thursday April 23, 2020 @04:42PM (#22961098)

I hope that the numbers stay at .6% and that the difference from previous estimates might even be improvements we've made in figuring out how to care for people suffering from Covid-19. But I remember being happy at how low South Korea's numbers were when their epidemic peaked and receded then watching the case fatality rate slowly climb up to the 2.2% it's at today. So I'm not counting any chickens just yet.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by greedo on Thursday April 23, 2020 @08:38PM (#22963359)

Be careful not to conflate CFR with IFR. CFR is the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases. IFR is deaths divided by total infections. It's hard to determine IFR, but CFR is almost always an exaggeration of the risk.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by ineedasername on Thursday April 23, 2020 @11:01PM (#22964213)

Yes. Hiwever, it is valid to compare the CFR of one pandemic to the CFR of another pandemic if you find the CFR from the same relative point in time of that other pandemic.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by Symmetry on Friday April 24, 2020 @09:25AM (#22967682)

Yeah, but with the success of contact tracing in South Korea I'm assuming IFR is within a factor of 2 of the CFR or so.

[ Parent | on HN ]