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A comment on Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies. Parent comment

Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by ashaiber on Thursday April 23, 2020 @03:58PM (#22960453)
The city itself actually estimates a total of 15,411 deaths so far the the figure is already closer to 0.9%, and there are still people dying in the city every day so will likely end up a bit higher (of course, all of this assuming the study actually represents reality).

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

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Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by Merrill on Thursday April 23, 2020 @04:14PM (#22960681)
You also have to adjust for the people who are already sick but haven't died yet. That would likely get you somewhere between 1 and 1.5%. So for herd immunity in the US at 200,000,000 recovered, that would be 2 to 3 million. That's consistent with earlier projections.
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Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by glofish on Thursday April 23, 2020 @04:18PM (#22960742)
one problem with all these projections is that they all assume everyone is the same and that it is just a matter of chance. Not true in the least bit.

those most susceptible get the disease first, those most sensitive die first -

I believe the ratios will not stay the same, but continuously tick downwards

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Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by Jovbrev on Thursday April 23, 2020 @04:38PM (#22961044)
On the other part, those who are more vulnerable are more aware, and are implementing more measures in their daily living, hence they are not getting infected as much, currently.

Hope it stays that way.

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Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by glofish on Thursday April 23, 2020 @04:59PM (#22961324)
Not sure that makes any difference.

Not only are death rates sharply higher in older people, but their infection rates relative to the population are also higher as well.

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Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by greedo on Thursday April 23, 2020 @08:36PM (#22963349)
Without better testing, you have no way of knowing whether older people have higher infection rates. Infection rates depend on far more variables than age. Witness what's happening on the Teddy Roosevelt.
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Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by pjc50 on Thursday April 23, 2020 @04:10PM (#22960637)
So .. drawing a line between two points, if NY had 20% immunity for 15k dead, that implies there will be 60k dead by the end of the process. Roughly one 9/11 every week or so?
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