Re:The epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial coronavi...
by dijit on Wednesday April 22, 2020 @07:14PM
(#22951213)
There will be an economic crisis if 2-3% of people lose their lives in a span of a few weeks.
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Re:The epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial coronavi...
by atourgates on Wednesday April 22, 2020 @08:35PM
(#22951675)
Absolutely there would be.
On the other hand, the results from the recent antibody testing in California[1] (if they're accurate) would suggest a much lower death rate - around 0.1% - 0.2%.
I fully agree that social distancing is the right move with the current data, but I wonder if that will continue to be the case as we come to understand the virus and its actual infection-fatality-rate more.
Re:The epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial coronavi...
by dijit on Thursday April 23, 2020 @02:14AM
(#22953285)
0.1% is the current mortality of flu, this has killed twice the yearly number of flu victims in a month. Could be explained by the huge infection rate possibly but it’s definitely more deadly by a wide margin.
Re:The epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial coronavi...
by atourgates on Thursday April 23, 2020 @12:02PM
(#22957394)
I agree totally. I haven't seemed much informed discussion along these lines, but the only two possabilities I see are:
1) The antibody studies are incorrect, and over-counting the infection rate.
2) COVID-19 spreads much more easily than influenza, and so a large percentage of the population has become infected much quicker than typical influenza spread patterns.
Neither option is great, though to me of the two, #2 seems more hopeful, since assumedly we'd get herd immunity relatively quickly.