Re:West’s incompetent response to pandemic will hasten the p...
by MarkusQ on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @12:17PM
(#22936318)
> Is there any reason to believe we get can it through 60-80% of our society within 12 months?
Exponential growth. Suppose the doubling time is 10 days (it's probably less) and there is one person loose who has it (there are probably more). One year would be 35 doublings (actually, slightly more) which would be enough time for 2^35 = 34 billion people to get it. Since this is well over four times the present world population, it's not unreasonable to suppose 60-80% of the people will have had it by then.
Exponential growth. Suppose the doubling time is 10 days (it's probably less) and there is one person loose who has it (there are probably more). One year would be 35 doublings (actually, slightly more) which would be enough time for 2^35 = 34 billion people to get it. Since this is well over four times the present world population, it's not unreasonable to suppose 60-80% of the people will have had it by then.