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Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by hartator on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @02:26AM (#22932532)
That’s actually not true. We are talking 0.2-0.3% lethality which is still a lot but it will bellow 250k deaths even if we are back to full normal right now.

Current estimations are 60-70k deaths from it but the doubling of suicides resulting of lockdowns this year to 100k make us more likely to die from suicide than covid-19.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by camgunz on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @03:05AM (#22932692)
I think those numbers are way low. Based on demographic numbers:

Older than 85: 650k deaths

65-84: 150k

55-65: 400k

I don't think everyone will be infected, but lets say it's half. That's 600k. Let's say it's 10%. That's 120k. By any measure, the loss of life is... just breathtaking. But either way, parent was taking about letting everyone get it to build herd immunity, so that's where "everyone gets it" is coming from.

https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html

> the doubling of suicides resulting of lockdowns this year to 100k make us more likely to die from suicide than covid-19

This had been circling the internet a little, but I would caution against extrapolating an uptick in suicides into doubling by the end of the year. There are no doubt consequences to sheltering in place, domestic abuse is a concern as well for example. But this is the best we've got.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by kelnos on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @03:06AM (#22932694)
Do you have citations to back up those numbers? I've been looking for things to read that try to quantify the potential harm of shelter-in-place orders, but haven't found much that go anywhere beyond wild guesses.
Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by camgunz on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @03:29AM (#22932820)
Yeah! Well, not the suicides. The stuff I found was like "9 suicides in Tennessee" (which is tragic but not indicative) and a lot of coverage of Trump's lies about it. But COVID-19 I used:

https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html

and

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the...

Feel free to check my math, it's late and I did some pretty sketchy rounding.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by DanBC on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @05:04AM (#22933251)
> the doubling of suicides resulting of lockdowns this year to 100k

There's no evidence that suicides are doubling.