Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by edmundsauto on Monday April 20, 2020 @06:26PM (#22929464)

You need to account for positive second order effects, e.g. reduced deaths from pollution. That pushes "extremely doubtful" firmly into "we can't even guess if quarantine will be a net plus or minus" in the 2020 death rate. It also heavily depends on how long quarantine goes on for -- would the mortality rates be changed from a 1 year recession? Or would it take many years?

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Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by 0xy on Monday April 20, 2020 @06:29PM (#22929493)

People don't just drop dead upon becoming unemployed. It's just a higher per year mortality rate. Also, economic destruction is not necessarily temporary.

A very large number of industries, companies and communities will be permanently wiped out from this.

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Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by edmundsauto on Monday April 20, 2020 @06:47PM (#22929682)

How do we know the higher per year mortality rate from poverty will exceed the lower death rate from reduced pollution, reduced car accidents, etc? It's not clear how these balance.

There are also industries growing, and industries that will be created. And some of the industries that may be permanently eliminated may be a net positive -- cruise lines are a complete blight.

I don't know what the net-net will look like, but it's important to push back on the assumption that economic downfall will be all negative in terms of lives lost.

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