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A comment on Hundreds of thousands in L.A. may have been infected with coronavirus: study. Parent comment

Re:Hundreds of thousands in L.A. may have been infected with... by tempsy on Monday April 20, 2020 @05:46PM (#22928991)
NY has 17x more deaths than California. That would mean if 3% of CA was infected (yes this is LA only but for ease of comparison) it would be 51%+ of NY was infected. Far more than just 15%.
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Re:Hundreds of thousands in L.A. may have been infected with... by BlackJack on Monday April 20, 2020 @05:52PM (#22929072)
LA is one of the densest parts of CA though, outside of SF/Bay Area. So if LA is 3%, you could assume the state as a whole is maybe 1-2%. Then 17x that becomes 17-34%, which seems more reasonable.
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Re:Hundreds of thousands in L.A. may have been infected with... by SpicyLemonZest on Monday April 20, 2020 @05:49PM (#22929034)
The comparison is overweighting LA county, which has 25% of California's population but 60% of its deaths. (I don't know what the math ends up being off the top of my head.)
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Re:Hundreds of thousands in L.A. may have been infected with... by arcticbull on Monday April 20, 2020 @05:49PM (#22929031)
CFR is not a great way of comparing across regions, it could be due to any number of factors. Demographics (i.e. age), co-moribidities and the amount of hospital space available.
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Re:Hundreds of thousands in L.A. may have been infected with... by arcticbull on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @04:09AM (#22932995)
In fact the per-country spread of CFR is huge, from a low of 0.07% in Singapore to a high of 14.93% in Belgium, a whole 3 orders of magnitude. The H1N1 influenza CFR at a similar point in the outbreak was between 0.1% and 5.1% -- but the final IFR ended up at 0.02% [1].

[1] https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-...

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