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A comment on Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending. Parent comment

Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by dragonwriter on Monday April 20, 2020 @05:00PM (#22928494)
> That still doesn't answer: why wasn't it anticipated and reflected in earlier pricing

Because despite the people that like saying all future events are reflected in current prices, the fact is humans, both individually and aggregated into markets, are imperfectly prescient, thus future events are basically never perfectly priced in to to current market prices.

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by JBSay on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @03:08AM (#22932705)
Nobody says that. All KNOWN future events are priced in. We are not doing divination here.
[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by dragonwriter on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @06:40AM (#22933688)
> Nobody says that.

People say things to the effect of “if it is going to happen, it is already priced in” all the time, on HN even.

> All KNOWN future events are priced in.

There are no such thing as known future events. Market participants estimation of the likelihood of future events, weighted by inclination and capacity to invest, are priced in.

[ Parent | on HN ]