Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by throwaway_USD on Monday April 20, 2020 @10:57AM (#22924353)

Usually by the time you see commodities activity hitting the front page of HN the bets are in and the market is about to take a wild swing in the other direction.

It is very easy to side with the news on oil right now that there is a historical over supply (so much so we have no place to store it any longer, and even considering paying producers to leave it in the ground) and we have a historical drop in demand...so any guesses on what the "news" will be to push oil prices wildly upwards?

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Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by somebodythere on Monday April 20, 2020 @11:01AM (#22924382)

In the near term, Fed buying oil for future delivery and instructing drillers to keep it in the ground.

In the longer term, the bankruptcies and capex cuts going on every day in the space--a lagging supply constrictor. Should be fuel to propel WTI to 80s when people start flying and driving again.

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Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by DarthGhandi on Monday April 20, 2020 @12:40PM (#22925571)

I've seen many talking about getting into oil producers and ETFs well above this price.

Guess it depends where you dwell online.

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Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by greenshackle2 on Monday April 20, 2020 @03:24PM (#22927398)

WTI was at -36.25$ just now. I hope you didn't put your money where your mouth is.

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Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by throwaway_USD on Monday April 20, 2020 @03:34PM (#22927524)

>Usually by the time you see commodities activity hitting the front page of HN the bets are in...

My bet was already in...however, I do think once we start seeing the news like this proliferate we will see an odd swing by Wednesday or Friday. Still my question was sincere, if we see a swing, I don't know what the markets rationale would be...that said where can it go from negative but up

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Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by greenshackle2 on Monday April 20, 2020 @03:56PM (#22927805)

Well, I don't want to presume what your bet is, if it was literally buying this contract and hoping to re-sell it than sorry for your loss I guess.

But yeah it seems like a short-term storage problem and it should bounce back, if your bet was something else it may yet pay off.

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Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by throwaway_USD on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @12:08PM (#22936218)

I had some puts on UCO. Last night there was a 25:1 reverse split...I just sold for >500% return (very small position).

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Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by sand_castles on Monday April 20, 2020 @04:12PM (#22927981)

Commodity markets are not Elon Musk tweets.

Oil gult takes 3-4 years to clear.

Now is a good time to bet on consumption, not on commodities.

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