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Re:Forecasting s-curves is hard by MagnumOpus on Monday April 20, 2020 @04:10AM (#22922085)
You are right to be. Tetlock spun the conclusions of the project far boyond what was warranted, especially because the project was heavily flawed.

I participated in the initial part of the project, figured out the winning strategy very quickly, and then dropped my participation immediately. How to be "super at forecasting" in Tetlock's eyes? Have lots of spare time in the middle of the day when professional are at work, because that is when questions get posted, and easy points can get made. (To win a prize that is less than the hourly rate of a professional.) Hmm, no wonder that the conclusion was that people with no expertise but plenty of spare time can beat the pros...

Re:Forecasting s-curves is hard by diehunde on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @12:08PM (#22936222)
You mean beat the people that actually do that for a living?