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A comment on With broad, random tests for antibodies, Germany seeks path out of lockdown. Parent comment

Re:With broad, random tests for antibodies, Germany seeks pa... by rv-de on Sunday April 19, 2020 @03:29PM (#22918178)
60% to 70% refers to an R0 of about 3. But the R0 is more likely to be around 6. That means you need 5/6th of a population to be immune - that's about 80% to 90%.

UPDATE:

"Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7"

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

A herd immunity strategy involving fast immunization by continuing business as usual would then involve an R0 > 5.

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Re:With broad, random tests for antibodies, Germany seeks pa... by standardUser on Sunday April 19, 2020 @04:07PM (#22918398)
You're making up numbers. We don't know the R0 and likely won't for some time.
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Re:With broad, random tests for antibodies, Germany seeks pa... by rv-de on Sunday April 19, 2020 @04:22PM (#22918497)
"Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7"

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

A herd immunity strategy involving fast immunization by continuing business as usual would then involve an R0 > 5.

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:With broad, random tests for antibodies, Germany seeks pa... by standardUser on Sunday April 19, 2020 @04:29PM (#22918544)
There have been several studies that have come up with different numbers. I guess we can calculate some interesting stuff based on the range, but it's a really big range (I've seen somewhere in the range of 1.5 to 7 in various articles/studies).
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Re:With broad, random tests for antibodies, Germany seeks pa... by usaar333 on Sunday April 19, 2020 @06:43PM (#22919407)
R0 is environment dependent. It is probably in the 2-3 range for say California using hospitalization data.
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