Re:With broad, random tests for antibodies, Germany seeks pa...
by dboreham on Sunday April 19, 2020 @01:41PM
(#22917400)
We have a pretty good idea it isn't 0.02% because there's an upper bound on the infection rate (around 75%) and the number of bodies is known and in all cases exceeds 0.3% of the maximum possible infections.
[ Parent
| on HN ]
Re:With broad, random tests for antibodies, Germany seeks pa...
by quersive on Sunday April 19, 2020 @06:25PM
(#22919307)
How did you come up with 0.3% number of bodies / maximum possible infections, aka total population? I'm trying to wrap my head around this whole mess...
Take Lombardy, hardest hit region in Europe. 1130 deaths / million, or about 0.1% death rate. All German states are under 100 deaths per million, which is less than 0.01% death rate. Sanity check: Bayern, 1.2k deaths/13M people ~ 0.01%.
Of course, this is a lower bound estimate assuming all people in a given region have got through the disease. Which is definitely not true. To figure out how bad is going to get we need the total number of infected people. Hopefully the random testing strategy will shed some light on that number. But at least we start [much] lower than 0.3%.
https://covid19.quersive.com/chart?c=M&e=IT-Lombardy&e=DE-BW...