I’m also expecting some long term after-effects that will increase diabetes and heart disease as most people are locked up.

Really? Maybe my local experience is an outlier but I've seen significantly more people cooking meals at home and exercising. The number of daily runners in my neighborhood has easily increased 10x. Are gluttony and sedentary lifestyles not the major contributors for type-2 diabetes and heart disease?

> The number of daily runners in my neighborhood has easily increased 10x.

Those are probably largely people that probably did just as much activity somewhere other than their home neighborhood (physical-but-nonessential labor, gym, athletic hobbies that rely on now-closed businesses, etc.)

I went running the other day for the first time in over a year, just as a way of getting fresh air. And before that I'd already lost 8 pounds since quarantine started, just because I haven't been eating restaurant-portions.

Congratulations! Keep it up!

I've had a similar experience, though I have no idea if the runners I'm seeing makes up for less activity throughout the day, gyms being closed, etc. It's possible that the 4% of people who go to the gym regularly are now running outside, and everyone else is even less active.

Also, heart disease and type-2 diabetes are years in the making, and a month of moderate exercise and better eating won't make up for it overnight. Not to mention added stress.

Takes 21 days to form a new habit, so there's every chance they'll continue!

No, there is not. When the circumstances change, habits change too.

When people go back to work, they will have less time at their hands. They will have to adjust to commuting again, taking kids to/from school again, being somewhere at time again.

All of that will cut into their exercise time. All the people who are exercising out of boredom now will stop exercising out of being tired of doing lot of things again.

It's far from given that a return to pre-outbreak commuting patterns will be the norm.

Has the number of runners increased more than the number of people going to gyms/sports leagues/swimming pools has dropped?

Also, are the people running new runners, or people who would otherwise be going to gyms?

non-essential procedures and doctor's visits have also been cancelled, and some medicines are now rationed also. Both will have a negative impact on the health of some people.

I personally had a month long series of treatments scheduled that got cancelled, and now I have no idea when I'll be able to get that treatment. Better than dying from the virus, though.

I've had a scan that was scheduled five months ago cancelled, and one of my vitally necessary meds was three weeks late getting filled. Good thing I'm worried about running out so had some to spare, but it's no joke that people are going to die due to simply not getting what they need.

My wife had a similar experience. Her issue is probably not major, but it could also be a serious cancer and who knows when they'll start taking clients again, much less catch up to her.

Making a rough guess of two months of shutdown, we've lost 1/6 of our annual non-emergency medical capacity for 2020. It'd be impossible to put a number on the cost in lives that means, but I think we can probably say with certainty that there are a non-insignificant number of people who will die or experience permanent medical issues because diagnosis and/or treatment was delayed.

Perhaps I've missed it, but I'm honestly shocked this isn't priority number one for a partial reopening in regions with low infection rates.

A lot of these "elective" "nonessential" services are really preventative.

This was plainly brought into view for me with a dental procedure I had to cancel/reschedule. It's deemed non-essential, but is necessary to prevent me from losing an entire tooth or two. If it's not done reasonably soon it's only a matter of time before it turns into an emergency dental procedure.

This is bad analysis which uses historic numbers and plops COVID against them. Everyone right now is dying of COVID and not much else. Apparently it’s healing cancer and heart attacks.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

I understand why total number of deaths decreased a little bit due to quarantine.

But sudden drop in total number of deaths from 52,992 down to 35,863 in the last week - looks suspicious.

I get the point you're trying to make with the data, but could you expand more on "healing cancer and heart attacks."?

Not sure I follow

If they're making the same claim I've seen elsewhere: People who would have died anyway from cancer/heart attacks but also have COVID19 are getting counted as COVID19 deaths instead of other causes, causing a dip in those numbers.